Election latest: 'Real collapse' for Tories after 'uplift' in support for Reform - with Labour tipped for best-ever win (2024)

Irish republican party Sinn Fein has launched its manifesto in Belfast today.

Here are the main pledges from the party's manifesto:

• Strong legal protections for workers and the right to join a trade union;
• Delivering flagship projects such as Magee University expansion, building the A5 and A6 roads and the redevelopment of Casem*nt Park, and other projects such as Narrow Water Bridge and the Ulster Canal;
• Fight for a fair funding model for the North which meets the needs of public services;
• Continue support and solidarity to the people of Palestine - seize every opportunity to call for an immediate ceasefire, release of all hostages, humanitarian aid, an end to genocide, and a free and independent Palestinian state;
• End chronic underfunding of public services and undervaluing of public service workers;
• Implement multiannual budgeting, sothe Executive is better equipped to plan and make longer-term investments, such as tackling hospital waiting lists;
• Press for the transfer of fiscal powers to the Executive to allow it to protect existing services and deliver improved public services, including powers for progressive taxation and the power to raise the minimum wage;
• For decisions to be taken by Executive ministers and not ministers in London;
• Establishing a Citizen's Assembly for people to engage in a dialogue addressing constitutional change;
• Delivering an Ending Violence Against Women and Girls strategy;
• Uphold the rights of all victims of the conflict to information, maximum disclosure and truth.

Sky News has partnered with YouGov for the general election campaign and today the second of their threeMRPpolling projectionsis out.

It makes for very bleak reading for the Conservatives, suggesting theyhave not made any gains during the campaign andcould slump to historically low seat numbers.

The poll also suggests Labour's majority is up, the Liberal Democrats areup as well, and Reform UK couldwin several seats.

On this episode, Niall Paterson analyses the implications of today’s poll with our deputy political editorSam Coates.

Plus, Sky’s political correspondent Tamara Cohen joins us from Edinburgh where she was at the launch of the SNP manifesto.

A police officer has been arrested and suspended over alleged bets about the timing of the general election.

He is a member of the Metropolitan Police's Royalty and Specialist Protection Command, which provides personal close protection to ministerial VIPs and members of the royal family.

Sky News understands the officer was working in Rishi Sunak's close protection team.

The Gambling Commission informed the Met Police last week they were investigating the activity by the police constable.

The matter was immediately referred to officers in the Met's directorate of professional standards who opened an investigation.

The officer was also removed from operational duties.

The officer was arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further inquiries.

The matter has also been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct.

The Gambling Commission continues to lead the investigation into the alleged betting offences.

History teaches us polls tend to narrow during election campaigns and governments tend to recover throughout the race.

But Patrick English, the director of political analytics at YouGov, says "we're just not seeing that at the moment".

Discussing this evening's poll for Sky News, he says the real change is in the Conservative number: "They're the ones that have really started suffering even further, a further erosion of their support."

He says Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has a lot to do with that.

"We've seen a real uplift in Reform UK support, they've started taking seats directly from the Conservatives according to our projections, and this is starting to cost the Conservatives further seats, particularly in the south where the Liberal Democrats are challenging them," he adds.

'A real collapse in Tory support'

Asked how much things can change before polling day, Mr English says while the Tories "might recover a little bit of that Reform vote", Labour are clearly on course for a "big victory".

"We're looking at a real collapse of the Conservative support," he adds.

"Perhaps there might be a little bit of a squeeze on the smaller parties, but difficult to say at the minute."

This evening's mammoth YouGov poll for Sky News is projecting a whopping 425 seats for Labour and a lowly 108 for the Tories.

The Lib Dems would win 67, the SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid four, the Greens two, and 18 would go to other parties.

You can see what result is projected for your constituency below:

Since the last YouGov MRP projection at the beginning of June, the pollster has changed its calls in 59 seats.

The Tories have dropped 32 seats since then, Labour has gained three seats in this projection, while the Lib Dems are up 19, SNP up three and Plaid Cymru up two.

Reform UK wins five seats under the new projection, having previously been on course to win zero according to YouGov. This includes Reform leader Nigel Farage winning his seat in Clacton.

Some 109 seats are still listed as a "toss-up" - but if all toss-up and close races in every seat where the Conservatives are second went in their favour, rather than in the direction assumed in this poll, then Labour would still have a majority of 132.

The Conservatives in that scenario would win 153 seats – still their lowest on record and far below what Labour won in 2019 under then-leader Jeremy Corbyn.

The projection vote shares implied by this MRP are Labour on 39%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on 15%, Lib Dems on 12% and Greens on 7%.

This means the Labour majority and seat tally have both gone up, even though Labour’s implied vote share is down three points since the start of June.

The big winners are Reform, up from 10% to 15% and the Lib Dems, up from 11% to 12%.

The polling for the projection was conducted from last Tuesday to this Tuesday with 39,979 people interviewed online: 36,161 in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.

It suggests the Conservatives would be a party predominantly of the South East, South West and East of England.

The party risks a complete or near wipeout in the North East, North West and Wales.

The YouGov MRP poll projects many big names will lose their seats on election night.

Some 15 of 27 cabinet members still standing in the election are set to lose, according to the projection.

Let's have a look at who they are and what their previous majority in their constituencies was.

Jeremy Hunt

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been the Tory MP for South West Surrey since 2005.

He held the seat with a 32,191 vote majority (53.3%) in 2019.

Mr Hunt is standing in the newly created constituency of Godalming and Ash this year against the Green's Ruby Tucker, Labour's James Walsh, the Liberal Democrats' Paul Follows, Reform UK's Graham Drage and Women's Equality's Harriet Williams.

Grant Shapps

The defence secretary has been the MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire since 2005. He won the seat with 27,394 votes in 2019, a majority of 52.6%.

He is standing against Jack Aaron for Reform UK, Sarah Butcher for the Greens, Andrew Lewin for Labour and John Munro for the Liberal Democrats.

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mordaunt has served as the leader of the House of Commons and has been the MP for Portsmouth North since 2010.

Ms Mordaunt, who has twice run for the Tory party leadership, held the seat with 61.4% of the vote in 2019, securing 28,172 votes.

She will face Simon Dodd from the Liberal Democrats, Amanda Martin from Labour, Stuart Robinson from the Greens and Melvyn Todd from Reform UK.

Victoria Atkins

Health Secretary Victoria Atkins was elected MP for Louth and Horncastle in Lincolnshire in 2015 and garnered 38,021 votes (72.7%) in 2019.

She will face Iconic Arty-Pole from the Monster Raving Loony party, independent Paul Hugill, Reform UK's Sean Matthews, Marcus Moorehouse for the SDP, Ross Pepper for the Lib Dems, Jonathan Slater for Labour and Robert Watson for the Greens.

Lucy Frazer

The culture secretary has been the MP for South East Cambridgeshire since 2015.

In 2019, she won 32,187 votes, or 50%.

Ms Frazer will stand in the new constituency of Ely and East Cambridgeshire against Robert Bayley for the SDP, Charlotte Cane for the Lib Dems, Andy Cogan for the Greens, Ryan Coogan for Reform UK, Hoo-Ray Henry for the Monster Raving Loony party, Labour's Elizabeth McWilliams and independents Obi Monye and Rob Rawlins.

Thangam Debbonaire

One Labour shadow cabinet minister, Thangam Debbonaire, is predicted to lose her seat to the Greens.

The shadow culture secretary has been MP for Bristol West since 2015 and garnered 62.3% of the vote with 47,028 votes in 2019.

The seat will be renamed Bristol Central and Ms Debonaire will be up against Reform UK's Robert Clarke, the Lib Dems' Nicholas Coombes, Carla Denyer from the Green party, Kellie-Jay Keen from the Party of Women and Conservative Samuel Williams.

Other notable Conservatives casualties are:

• Jacob Rees-Mogg, former leader of the House of Commons (North East Somerset and Hanham);
• Iain Duncan Smith, former Tory leader (Chingford and Woodford Green);
• Steve Baker, Northern Ireland minister (Wycombe);
• Liam Fox, former defence secretary (North Somerset);
• Stephen Crabb, former work and pensions secretary (Mid and South Pembrokeshire).

Additionally, seats previously held by five former Conservative prime ministers are set to be lost by the party:

• Huntingdon (John Major’s old seat) is set to go Labour;
• Maidenhead (Theresa May’s old seat) is set to go Lib Dem;
• Old Bexley and Sidcup (Edward Health’s old seat) is set to go Labour;
• Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Boris Johnson’s old seat) is set to go Labour;
• Witney (David Cameron's old seat) is set to go Lib Dem.

Labour is on course for a historic majority of 200, according to a new YouGov projection for Sky News.

Sir Keir Starmer's party is tipped to win a commanding 425 seats, more than double the 202 won in 2019 and the party's best-ever result.

The Tories would slump to the lowest number of parliamentary seats since the party's formation with 108 - down from the 365 won in 2019 and even lower than a previous low of 141 in 1906.

It would give Sir Keir's party the second-largest majority since the Second World War when voters go to the polls on 4 July.

This poll gives Labour an even bigger win than previous MRP surveys, which are considered the gold standard for projecting results due to the large sample size of respondents and the additional information they take into account - such as geographic location.

Compared to YouGov's last poll of this type, from 3 June, the Tories have lost another 32 seats and Labour have gained three.

Some 15 of 27 Tory cabinet members still standing in this general election are projected to lose - including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt.

How do the other parties fare?

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats under this projection, a huge six-times the number of seats they won in 2019.

That's their best result since the party's formation, too.

John Swinney's SNP is tipped to drop to 20 seats, down from the 48 Nicola Sturgeon won in the last general election.

Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on course for five seats, including the party leader winning Clacton, while the Greens have two and Plaid Cymru have four.

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hub With Sophy Ridgewill be live on Sky News from 7pm.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Tonight features the first of Sophy's leader interviews for the 2024 general election campaign: Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats.

The pair discuss the party's plans for immigration, its stance on potentially rejoining the EU's single market, and why Sir Ed has been so open about caring for his son.

And of course, his campaign stunts come up too.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

George Galloway spent much of his manifesto speech talking about Nigel Farage.

The leader of the Workers Party of Britain warned of a political vacuum that was being created by the perceived failure of the major parties.

He said Reform UK was making dangerous advances as a result.

"There's a real chance Nigel Farage will run away with this election," he said.

While Reform UK and the Workers Party sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum, both seek to fill that aforementioned vacuum.

But Mr Galloway's party is not building the same kind of momentum and current polling suggests it won't return a single MP.

That would be a step back from February, when Mr Galloway won the Rochdale by-election, dropping candidate Azhar Ali at late notice after he was accused of antisemitism.

At the same time, Mr Galloway successfully capitalised on the frustration and anger at Labour's position on the Israel-Gaza conflict among Rochdale's Muslim population.

Muslims make up 20% of the population in Rochdale and there are 28 seats nationwide where they comprise more than a fifth.

Labour are directing activists to places like Luton to shore up support in the face of a threat from independent candidates and parties taking a strong pro-Palestine stance.

Mr Galloway warned today that Labour had lost the Muslim vote over their foreign policy stance.

Yet most Muslims rate the cost of living crisis and the NHS as their main priorities, ahead of the Middle East.

Labour might be concerned about losing some Muslim voters, but the majority are still planning to vote for them - and in higher numbers than the rest of the population.

Mr Galloway's opponents in Rochdale on 4 July are:

• Andy Kelly, Lib Dems;
• Martyn Savin, Greens;
• Michael Howard, Reform;
• Paul Waugh, Labour;
• Paul Ellison, Conservatives.